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RD Energy Newsletter:  December 2018

December 2018 Energy Update

 

Key Conditions

  1. Natural gas prices rose $3.185/MMBTU to $4.715/MMBTU from November to December.  Approx. 47% in one month
  2. Natural gas prices are trending higher than anytime in 2015, 2016 or 2017
  3. Weather driven demand is up substantially year over year
  4. The natural gas storage deficit that has existed since last winter is the key underlying driver of the recent price volatility and sudden rise in prices when November turned colder than normal in the Midwest and Northeast
  5. Many variable priced natural gas and electric consumers are hedging their volumes to protect against even higher prices later this winter

 

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RD Energy Newsletter: November 2018.  Surging Prices With Colder Forecasts!

November 2018 Energy Update
Key Drivers:

  1. Colder updated weather forecast is causing December 2018 NYMEX to surge $.24 early on 11/5 to $3.53/MMBTU.
  2. The natural gas storage deficit continues to range from 10% – 24% regionally throughout the United States
  3. November 2018 NYMEX settled at $3.185/MMBTU versus November 2017 at $2.752/MMBTU
  4. Natural gas production continues to rise,

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RD Energy Update: Rising Price Alert!

Special Edition Energy Update
Important Wholesale Market data you should be aware of:

  1. The natural gas wholesale market was trading range bound for the 5 months of May  – Sept. at an average price of $2.88/MMBTU
  2. NYMEX by the end of September traded at $3.02/MMBTU.
  3. On 10/17/18 the NYMEX prompt month traded at $3.33/MMBTU or up $.45/MMBTU since the end of August.

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RD Energy Newsletter: October 2018

October 2018 Energy Update
Key Drivers

  1. Storage deficit this late in the injection season
    1. 20% deficit versus year ago levels
    2. 18% deficit versus 5 year average
    3. Current pace of injections could result in lowest level in storage heading into winter since 2003
  2. Weather – Cold in western half and hot in the eastern half
    1. Below temperatures in western half of U.S.

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RD Energy Newsletter: September 2018

September 2018 Energy Update
Key Drivers

  1. Natural gas production is up 8 bcf/day since August 2017
  2. Natural gas storage is running at a 23% deficit compared to August 2017 levels
  3. Natural gas Exports to Mexico hit an all-time high in August
  4. The summer of 2018 has not only been hot,

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RD Energy Newsletter: August 2018

August 2018 Energy Update
Key Drivers

  1. Natural gas storage levels are 24% lower than last year and 20% lower than the 5 year average
  2. U.S. natural gas production has reached a new high, but rising demand is keeping storage injections low
  3. Mild weather in the mid-west is offset by blazing heat in South,

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RD Energy Newsletter: July 2018

July 2018 Energy Update
Key Drivers

  1. June started the cooling season the 2nd hottest the nation has seen since 1950
  2. NG storage levels trailing both one year ago and 5 year levels.  Shortfall may exist into winter
  3. Looking at historical storage level fundamentals based on the current deficit NG prices could be around $3.75 /MMBTU- $4.00/MMBTU. 

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RD Energy Newsletter: June 2018

June 2018 Energy Update
Key Drivers

  1. Natural gas NYMEX is up for the third month in a row to $2.95/MMBTU
  2. Natural gas prices are up $.25/MMBTU in the past 30 days
  3. Supply/Demand balance week ending May 31: Supply of 85.7 bcf/day – demand 72 bcf/day = 13.7 bcf/day injected into storage
  4. Hot weather will increase power demand of natural gas
  5. Key question: Will the storage deficit be gone before winter if demand continues to increase faster than new supply?

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RD Energy Newsletter: May 2018

May 2018 Energy Update
Key Drivers

  1. After an extended winter, natural gas storage in the U.S. ended up with a 527 bcf deficit
  2. Current storage is 35% lower than last year and 22% lower than the 5 year average
  3. To make up the deficit an extra 5.5 bcf/year will need to be injected
  4. over the 29 weeks
  5. Natural gas production in the U.S.

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April 2018 Newsletter

April 2018 Energy Update

Key Drivers

  1. Natural gas prices have flattened with April NYMEX closing in late March at $2.691/MMBTU
  2. Natural gas continues to set new records 79.1 bcf/day or 7.3 bcf/day higher than a year ago.
  3. Oil prices are bullish with Crude Oil trading around $66/bbl. 

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