January 2019 Energy Update
Key Drivers

1. November – colder than normal temperatures
2. December- warmer than normal temperatures
3. January- updated forecasts to warmer than normal
4. Storage deficit- 19% lower than year ago and 5 year average levels

Commentary

In mid-December both American and European weather models were confident that the colder than normal November was going to be followed by a colder than normal January. 

…

Read more ›

December 2018 Energy Update

Key Conditions

1. Natural gas prices rose $3.185/MMBTU to $4.715/MMBTU from November to December.  Approx. 47% in one month
2. Natural gas prices are trending higher than anytime in 2015, 2016 or 2017
3. Weather driven demand is up substantially year over year
4. The natural gas storage deficit that has existed since last winter is the key underlying driver of the recent price volatility and sudden rise in prices when November turned colder than normal in the Midwest and Northeast
5. Many variable priced natural gas and electric consumers are hedging their volumes to protect against even higher prices later this winter

…

Read more ›

November 2018 Energy Update
Key Drivers:

1. Colder updated weather forecast is causing December 2018 NYMEX to surge $.24 early on 11/5 to $3.53/MMBTU.
2. The natural gas storage deficit continues to range from 10% – 24% regionally throughout the United States
3. November 2018 NYMEX settled at $3.185/MMBTU versus November 2017 at $2.752/MMBTU
4. Natural gas production continues to rise,

…

Read more ›

Special Edition Energy Update
Important Wholesale Market data you should be aware of:

1. The natural gas wholesale market was trading range bound for the 5 months of May  – Sept. at an average price of $2.88/MMBTU
2. NYMEX by the end of September traded at $3.02/MMBTU.
3. On 10/17/18 the NYMEX prompt month traded at $3.33/MMBTU or up $.45/MMBTU since the end of August.

…

Read more ›

October 2018 Energy Update
Key Drivers

1. Storage deficit this late in the injection season
   1. 20% deficit versus year ago levels
   2. 18% deficit versus 5 year average
   3. Current pace of injections could result in lowest level in storage heading into winter since 2003
2. Weather – Cold in western half and hot in the eastern half
   1. Below temperatures in western half of U.S.

…

Read more ›

August 2018 Energy Update
Key Drivers

1. Natural gas storage levels are 24% lower than last year and 20% lower than the 5 year average
2. U.S. natural gas production has reached a new high, but rising demand is keeping storage injections low
3. Mild weather in the mid-west is offset by blazing heat in South,

…

Read more ›