Special Edition Energy Update
Important Wholesale Market data you should be aware of:
- The natural gas wholesale market was trading range bound for the 5 months of May – Sept. at an average price of $2.88/MMBTU
- NYMEX by the end of September traded at $3.02/MMBTU.
- Storage deficit this late in the injection season
- 20% deficit versus year ago levels
- 18% deficit versus 5 year average
- Current pace of injections could result in lowest level in storage heading into winter since 2003
- Weather – Cold in western half and hot in the eastern half
- Below temperatures in western half of U.S.
- Natural gas production is up 8 bcf/day since August 2017
- Natural gas storage is running at a 23% deficit compared to August 2017 levels
- Natural gas Exports to Mexico hit an all-time high in August
- The summer of 2018 has not only been hot,
August 2018 Energy Update
- Natural gas storage levels are 24% lower than last year and 20% lower than the 5 year average
- U.S. natural gas production has reached a new high,
- June started the cooling season the 2nd hottest the nation has seen since 1950
- NG storage levels trailing both one year ago and 5 year levels.
- Natural gas NYMEX is up for the third month in a row to $2.95/MMBTU
- Natural gas prices are up $.25/MMBTU in the past 30 days
- Supply/Demand balance week ending May 31: Supply of 85.7 bcf/day – demand 72 bcf/day = 13.7 bcf/day injected into storage
- Hot weather will increase power demand of natural gas
- Key question: Will the storage deficit be gone before winter if demand continues to increase faster than new supply?
May 2018 Energy Update
- After an extended winter, natural gas storage in the U.S. ended up with a 527 bcf deficit
- Current storage is 35% lower than last year and 22% lower than the 5 year average
- To make up the deficit an extra 5.5 bcf/year will need to be injected
- over the 29 weeks
- Natural gas production in the U.S.
April 2018 Energy Update
- Natural gas prices have flattened with April NYMEX closing in late March at $2.691/MMBTU
- Natural gas continues to set new records 79.1 bcf/day or 7.3 bcf/day higher than a year ago.
- Strong start to winter NG demand in December/January hit the brakes in February.
- Final end of the winter season NG storage expected to be around 1400 bcf.
- Natural gas NYMEX closed for February at the 2nd highest price since December 2014.
- The natural gas storage withdrawal for the week ending January 19th tied the 2nd highest storage reduction on record at 288 Bcf.