Rd Energy Newsletters & Blogs

RD Energy Stay Current Newsletter: June 2024

Key Drivers Daily U.S. natural gas production cut back Above average U.S. natural gas storage levels Technical Trader short-squeeze Early start to warmer summer Electric growth from micro chip plants and data centers 40% jump in LNG export capacity in early 2025 Commentary The natural gas and electric wholesale markets is ripe for price volatility as the key fundamental drivers of pricing for both commodities is looking both short-term and long-term.  In the short-term we

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RD Energy Stay Current Newsletter: May 2024 Short-Term Vs Long-Term View

Key Drivers Natural Gas storage is 655 bcf higher than the past 5 year average U.S. natural gas producers have reduced supplies to retail market to slow the slide in well-head prices Approaching AC season and forecasted hotter than normal summer likely to bolster prices of NG and electric Future NG and electric growth forecasted as new LNG export terminals near completion and exponential data center and microchip usage looms in future Commentary Natural gas

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RD Energy Stay Current Newsletter: April 2024

Key Drivers Extremely mild winter Extraordinarily high natural gas storage levels Reduction of daily natural gas production by U.S. producers Fears of higher natural gas domestic and global demand in early 2025 Fears of PJM peak day delivery short-fall Commentary Many of our clients fixed new electric and natural gas agreements in 2021 prior to  2022’s historically high price surge.  Even though wholesale energy prices for both commodities have fallen off 2022 extreme levels, energy

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RD Energy’s Stay Current Newsletter: March 2024

In lieu of our normal monthly newsletter we thought we would try and help answer two ongoing business consumer energy questions: Why are energy prices higher than when we last fixed our electric and natural gas contracts a few years ago? When should business consumers look at renewing their energy contracts?   Wholesale natural gas and wholesale electricity are daily traded commodities.  As the #1 fuel source for power generation, wholesale natural gas prices is

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RD Energy Stay Current Newsletter: February 2024

Key Drivers U.S. natural gas storage is 5% higher than past 5 year average Daily U.S. natural gas daily production is very strong at around 104 bcf/day LNG exports is averaging around 13.5 bcf/day or about 2.5 bcf/day below peak capacity Speculator NYMEX traders low in number as forecasted arriving cold weather gains confidence LNG export capacity to increase by about 40% in early 2025   Commentary Since we try to write our commentary based

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RD Energy Stay Current Newsletter: January 2024

Key Drivers Cold and snow arrives in January forecasts Natural gas storage levels are higher than the past 5 year average Near record daily natural gas production levels Speculator “short-sellers” are pushing natural gas NYMEX down   Commentary Your RD Energy team would like to welcome you to 2024.  Once again, we would like to thank our RD Energy clients for their trust and confidence in our efforts to help each company buy their natural

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RD Energy Stay Current Newsletter: December 2023

Right now, both the natural gas and electric energy commodities are fundamentally and technically bearish and wholesale prices are falling sharply.  We are near a January natural gas NYMEX trading support level that if broken could push prices down quite a bit lower.  What is causing this drop and can prices reverse back up this winter? The past three winters in the U.S. experienced La Nino weather patterns, but this winter we’re experiencing an El

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RD Energy Stay Current Newsletter: November 2023

Key Drivers Temperatures in the Midwest and Northeast LNG export growth U.S. natural gas storage in great shape heading into winter U.S. natural gas production staying consistently strong   Commentary Wholesale energy prices for natural gas and electric bottomed out mid-February after reaching historical peak levels in the Fall of 2022.  Wholesale prices have since slowly trended up.  Even with the scorching summer in the south and southwest, U.S. natural gas production was able to

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RD Energy Stay Current Newsletter: October 2023

Key Drivers Flip flopping Midwest temperature patterns LNG daily export demand Daily U.S. production volumes Technical traders selling NYMEX in greater numbers than buying NYMEX Rising oil prices could eventually help support natural gas and power prices High U.S. natural gas storage level     Commentary The U.S. is definitely in a moderate El Nino weather pattern that will likely continue through the 2023/2024 winter.  An El Nino normally effects the Midwest with drier than normal

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RD Energy Stay Current Newsletter: September 2023

Key Drivers Extreme heat in the southwest – revised forecasts for Midwest lowering the temperature New natural gas drilling activity reduced by U.S. producers throughout 2023 The large natural gas storage surplus from spring reduced substantially throughout summer LNG global issues: U.S. exports expected to jump up soon; Australia’s LNG labor strike Commentary    U.S natural gas producers want higher well-head prices and are reducing drilling activity to try to achieve it.  Natural gas drilling

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RD Energy Stay Current Newsletter: August 2023

Key Drivers Slow erosion of natural gas storage surplus vs 5 year average Excessive heat across much of the country weakens except in the south and southwest Daily natural gas production remains strong now, but the wait is on for the 4th Quarter downturn LNG exports:  Will daily LNG demand pick up as winter approaches in Europe? Will El Nino continue to gain strength and how will it affect winter weather here and abroad? Commentary 

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RD Energy Stay Current Newsletter: July 2023

  Key Drivers  Weather – short-term, long-term, hotter than normal, colder than normal…eventually it all matters LNG exports – returning to higher daily numbers after maintenance programs U.S. natural gas production – returning to higher daily volumes after maintenance programs Natural gas prices in Europe/Asia on the rise U.S. Natural gas storage numbers above average   Commentary  The wholesale natural gas and electric markets have been bouncing up and down for a few months.  Are

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RD Energy Stay Current Newsletter: June 2023

Key Drivers Natural gas storage is 529 bcf or 29.3% higher than at the same point last year The South and Southwest remain cooler than normal through at least mid-June LNG natural gas exports are strong, but pending maintenance could lower volumes exported Quickly falling natural gas drilling rig count will likely cause lower production later in 2023 Commentary  As we enter June both the fundamental and technical outlook for natural gas and electric in

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RD Energy Stay Current Newsletter: May 2023

Key Drivers A few weeks of below normal temperatures in the Midwest and Northeast in April Strong LNG exports to Europe and Asia Weak daily domestic demand Above average natural gas storage levels Summer AC season not too far away Slowing down of new U.S. natural gas drilling programs Commentary  The one big item at the front of many energy conversations is the extreme high cost of utility electric generation rates in Ohio beginning with

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RD Energy: Stay Current Newsletter- April 2023

Key Drivers Continuing warm weather forecasts in the Midwest and Northeast Lack of cold weather demand in the short-term market Strong LNG exports that could rise even more this summer Upcoming natural gas storage injections beginning later in April The arrival of air conditioning season increasing natural gas and power consumption Long-term global natural gas demand growth is pushing up long-term prices Commentary Electric Utility Prices & Columbia Gas of Ohio Updates: By now most

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RD Energy: Stay Current Newsletter- March 2023

Key Drivers March 2023 forecasted to return to more normal and even below normal in the Midwest and Northeast Signs of life at the Freeport LNG facility as volumes begin to slowly come back online U.S producers slow drilling as natural gas and oil prices fall after raking in record breaking 2022 profits Commentary The enormous plunge in natural gas, and therefore, electric prices have very much appeared to hit bottom last Tuesday when prices found

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RD Energy Stay Current Newsletter: February 2023

Key Drivers January temperatures averaged well above normal in the Midwest and Northeast February temperature forecasts are favoring a near repeat of January mild temperatures in Midwest and Northeast Fast growing year over year natural gas storage surplus Extremely high number of speculative traders selling NYMEX short pushing prices down   Commentary The vast majority of our RD Energy clients in 2022 were able to completely avoid the extreme price volatility by not needing to

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RD Energy Stay Current Newsletter: January 2023- Past & Future

Want to listen to the update on our podcast?  Click Here!  As we enter 2023 we felt it was a great time to briefly look back at 2022 and note a few key events and price drivers of wholesale natural gas and wholesale electric and then look ahead at happenings and events that could shape energy commodity prices in 2023.  Learning from the past can help our vision of the future. The year 2022 in

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RD Energy December 2022: Stay Current Newsletter

Key Drivers Short-term warm and cold temperature swings keeping prices volatile Long range weather models forecasting a deepening NOA (cold December) Increasing prices in Europe as winter arrives Freeport LNG facility coming back online in December Strong increase in NG production September – November   Commentary Future price direction for both the natural gas and electric wholesale markets has never been more difficult to predict.  Just look at the electric price target graph of a current

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RD Energy November 2022 Stay Current Newsletter – Price Volatility Rollercoaster

Key Drivers Extreme warmth in the eastern half of the U.S. Week of November 11-17 shows extreme warmth ending Freeport, LA LNG facility – when will it come back online? Europe natural gas storage nearly full and warm weather persists The sizeable 2022 storage deficit versus 2021 will likely be eliminated   Commentary If you like an amusement park with the largest rollercoasters, risky games that’s difficult to win and food you wish you hadn’t

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RD Energy Stay Current October 2022 Newsletter – Lower Price Optimism For Consumers

Key Drivers Highest U.S. Natural gas production since 2019 Lower domestic energy demand in the Fall season Electric demand destruction in FL from Hurricane Ian Sizable U.S. natural gas storage deficit reduction expected in October End of Season storage will still likely trail 5 year storage average and 2021 La Nino this coming winter for 3rd year in a row Weak Polar Vortex forming meaning some very cold winter weather at times for the eastern

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RD Energy Stay Current Newsletter: Sept 2022

Key Driver & Startling Facts 3.4 TCF final storage expectation well below 4 TCF full capacity Very tight supply and demand NG balance in U.S, tilted heavily in demand’s favor Global NG demand pushing European prices above $90/MMBTU vs. $9.00/MMBTU in U.S. Electric prices in Europe now over $1000/MW vs. $115/MW in OH 20 million U.S. households in U.S. or 1 in 6 behind on energy bills Nearly 50% of European households face energy cost

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